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Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has announced that many regions across Indonesia have entered the peak of the rainy season.

According to BMKG’s rainfall forecast, most parts of the country are expected to experience heavy rainfall throughout December, with totals exceeding 200 mm. Residents are advised to remain vigilant against the potential for extreme weather, particularly through December 9, 2024.

In its statement, BMKG highlighted active atmospheric phenomena, such as La Niña, which are influencing weather patterns.

These phenomena could increase rainfall by 20-40%, potentially leading to severe impacts like flooding, landslides, and lahar floods near active volcanoes. This pattern is expected to persist from December 2024 to at least April 2025.

Cyclonic Activity Amplifies Heavy Rainfall

One of the key contributors to this condition is a cyclonic circulation over the Natuna Sea and the Indian Ocean southwest of Banten. These systems intensify atmospheric lifting, promoting the formation of high-intensity rain clouds.

“This increases the likelihood of significant rainfall, so communities in affected areas should remain alert to potential extreme weather,” BMKG stated, as reported by inews.id.

Moreover, the combined activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Rossby waves, Kelvin waves, and low-frequency atmospheric dynamics in western and central Indonesia supports prolonged and intensified rainfall.

BMKG data reveals that 43.4% of Indonesia’s Seasonal Zones (ZOM), encompassing areas like Sumatra, southern Java, and Kalimantan, are experiencing the rainy season’s peak. These conditions could trigger flooding, waterlogging, or landslides in vulnerable regions.

Tropical Cyclone Seeds and Precautions

BMKG’s Deputy for Meteorology, Guswanto, recently noted the presence of tropical cyclone seeds, including 96S in the Indian Ocean southwest of Bengkulu and 99B in the Indian Ocean west of Aceh.

“Moderate to heavy rainfall is predicted across nearly all regions of Indonesia. Local governments are encouraged to review disaster preparedness measures and implement comprehensive mitigation strategies to minimize potential risks,” said Guswanto, quoting cnnindonesia.com.

BMKG also urged the public to stay alert to extreme weather and regularly check the agency’s official channels for the latest updates.

Shipping companies, ferry operators, and fishermen were specifically cautioned due to the cold surge phenomenon, which could trigger high waves, posing a safety hazard.

Heavy Rainfall and Strong Winds: Affected Regions

Based on current atmospheric dynamics, BMKG forecasts moderate to very heavy rainfall that causes lightning and strong winds, in the following areas:

Sumatra: Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Riau Islands, Jambi, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, Lampung
Java and Bali: Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Bali
Nusa Tenggara: West Nusa Tenggara (NTB)
Kalimantan: West, Central, North, East, and South Kalimantan
Sulawesi: North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi
Maluku and Papua: North Maluku, Maluku, Southwest Papua, West Papua, Central Papua, Highlands Papua, Papua, and South Papua

Additional regions forecasted to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall with potential lightning and strong winds include South Sumatra, Yogyakarta, East Java, and East Nusa Tenggara.

Extended Rainfall Predicted Through Early 2025

Deputy for Climatology at BMKG, Ardhasena, predicts that the rainy season’s peak will span from November 2024 to February 2025.

“Regions such as parts of Sumatra, the southern coast of Java, and Kalimantan are expected to experience significant rainfall during this period,” Ardhasena explained.

Stay Prepared

Given these forecasts, BMKG recommends vigilance and readiness. Individuals, local governments, and industries are advised to monitor weather developments and take preventive measures to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.

Source: inews.id, cnnindonesia.com

Special Image Credit: AntaraNews/Indrianto Eko Suwarso

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